The final weeks of 2025 are presenting a complex landscape for Main Street. While headline news often focuses on the giants, the real story is written in the ledgers of companies like yours. Understanding these five shifts isn't just about tracking the weather; it’s about ensuring you have the right sails for the 2026 season. Use this intelligence to move from reacting to the market to positioning your business to lead it.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November 2025 came in at 2.7%, a drop from the 3.0% seen earlier in the autumn. While the "core" rate (excluding food and energy) remains at 2.6%, the overall cooling trend is a positive signal for your 2026 expense forecasting. However, the energy index rose 4.2% over the last 12 months, with fuel oil jumping 11.3%, meaning logistics and heating costs will likely remain a line-item pressure point for the remainder of the winter.

In its December 10 meeting, the Federal Reserve cut the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points, bringing the target range to 3.5%–3.75%. This marks the third consecutive cut in the current "normalization" cycle. For an owner, this means the "cost of waiting" on capital improvements or equipment financing is finally decreasing. If you have been delaying a necessary upgrade due to borrowing costs, the window for a more favorable rate is opening.

The latest ADP National Employment Report highlights a stark divide: while medium and large firms added 90,000 jobs, small businesses (fewer than 50 employees) lost 120,000 jobs in November. This "labor contraction" suggests your peers are tightening operations to preserve margin. On the bright side, the NFIB reports that "labor quality" remains the top issue for 21% of owners—indicating that the struggle isn't finding people, but finding skilled talent.

In a historic shift, the net percentage of small business owners raising average selling prices jumped 13 points to 34% in November. According to the NFIB, this is the largest monthly increase in the 52-year history of the survey. It signals that the "pass-through" phase has arrived; businesses are no longer absorbing vendor increases and are instead moving to protect their bottom lines. If your margins have been squeezed, you are certainly not alone in considering a price adjustment.

While 74% of SMBs still report being "comfortable" with their cash flow, specific sentiment data shows a erosion of the "safety cushion." The percentage of owners reporting they are "very comfortable" dropped from 31% to 24% this quarter. With 15% of owners now naming inflation as their top challenge—up from previous months—the priority for the next 90 days should be a meticulous review of accounts receivable and vendor terms to ensure your liquidity remains robust.

TL;DR

Here are some key economic sources for a deeper dive: